[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 19 09:30:20 EST 2013 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
two C-class flares late in the UT day from Region 1800 (S10E63). 
A subsequent CME was observed in SOHO LASCO imagery however both 
SOHO and STEREO imagery for these events is very patchy. Further 
analysis will be made once the data becomes available however 
initial estimates based on location and limited imagery make 
these events unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low 19-Jul, with the chance of an isolated M-class flare. 
The solar wind speed increased steadily throughout the day under 
the influence of a coronal hole wind stream, to be near 550km/s 
at the time of reporting. This was associated with some moderate 
(+/-10nT) fluctuations in IMF Bz. The CME from 16-Jul, reported 
17-Jul, is expected to arrive early today (19-Jul). Modelling 
suggests a glancing blow from this CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   01213432
      Cocos Island         8   02223331
      Darwin              10   11223432
      Townsville          10   11223432
      Learmonth           21   11225552
      Alice Springs       10   01223432
      Norfolk Island       8   11113332
      Culgoora             9   01213432
      Gingin              15   10214452
      Camden               8   01113431
      Canberra             7   00113332
      Hobart               8   00113432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    18   00025622
      Casey               16   22333443
      Mawson              30   32224473

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1110 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul    20    Active, with Minor Storm periods
20 Jul    12    Unsettled
21 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 17 July and 
is current for 18-20 Jul. The geomagnetic activity level gradually 
increased throughout the day from Quiet early in the UT day through 
to Active by the end of the day, as a result of a coronal hole 
wind stream. Some isolated Minor Storm periods were observed 
at high latitudes. Expect mostly Unsettled to Active geomagnetic 
conditions to continue 19 Jul. A CME is expected to arrive early 
in the UT day 19-Jul, which could produce isolated Minor Storm 
periods, particularly at high latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 21 was issued 
on 18 July and is current for 19-20 Jul. MUFs were near predicted 
monthly values at most locations over the last 24 hours and HF 
conditions were normal. Some degraded HF conditions expected 
at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations 19-20 Jul due to increased geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    40000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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