[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 18 09:30:25 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
just two low level C-class flares for the period. Further low
level flaring from AR1791 is expected 18-Jul, with the chance
of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed remains slow
(below 400km/s), and the IMF relatively stable. A coronal hole
should move into geoeffective position 18-Jul, increasing solar
wind speed for the next three days. The CME from 16-Jul reported
yesterday is expected to arrive in the latter half of today (18-Jul).
Modelling suggests a glancing blow from this CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 2 11210011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 12201012
Learmonth 1 01100011
Alice Springs 1 10200010
Norfolk Island 3 23100001
Culgoora 2 11101111
Gingin 1 01100111
Camden 2 11101110
Canberra 1 01100010
Hobart 2 11101110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 3 22101111
Mawson 2 11200021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Jul 20 Active with Minor Storm periods
20 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions early 18 Jul, increasing
to Active in the second half of the UT day and into 19-Jul, due
to the combined effects of a coronal hole wind stream and a CME.
Isolated Minor Storm periods possible 19-Jul, particularly at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values at most locations
over the last 24 hours, and HF conditions were normal. These
conditions are expected to prevail for most of 18-Jul. Some degraded
HF conditions expected at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations from late
18-Jul and into 19-Jul due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 40300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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