[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 11 09:30:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
the largest event being a C4.9 from active region 1787 (S15W13).
Low to moderate activity is expected for the next 3 days. The
solar wind speed varied from ~350km/s to ~500km/s during the
UT day and is now ~450km/s. The IMF Bz component remained negative
for most of this period, down to -12nT, and is currently around
-5nT. SOHO/LASCO images of the 9-Jul CME show a full halo. The
revised arrival time estimate is around 13/1800UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 23334332
Cocos Island 11 3323322-
Darwin 15 33234333
Townsville 14 23334332
Learmonth 20 3334532-
Alice Springs 13 2323432-
Norfolk Island 11 32333222
Culgoora 14 23334332
Gingin 17 3324433-
Camden 15 23334333
Canberra 9 22233222
Hobart 15 23334333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 31 2255553-
Casey 13 3333323-
Mawson 34 5654323-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1022 2414
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 12 Unsettled
12 Jul 5 Quiet
13 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly unsettled with some
active periods over the last 24 hours. Conditions reached storm
levels at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected
for 11-Jul. Quiet conditions are expected to return by 12-Jul.
Activity could increase late on 13-Jul with the arrival of the
9-Jul CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded periods are likely at high latitudes early
11-Jul and late 13-Jul. Otherwise, mostly normal HF conditions
are expected for the next three days, with a chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 8
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Nighttime MUF enhancements
were observed in southern Australia and degraded HF conditions
in Antarctic region. The latter could continue into 11-Jul. A
chance of degraded conditions at high latitudes late on 13-Jul.
Otherwise, mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days, with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 45000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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