[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 13 issued 2334 UT on 09 Jul 2013

Wed Jul 10 09:34:14 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 120/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C flares from active regions 1785 (S12W21) and 1787 (S14E03). 
A filament liftoff commenced at 09/1350 UT (N26E20). An associated 
CME was first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 09/1524UT. This 
appears Earth-directed, with an approximate arrival time late 
on 12-Jul. SOHO/LASCO imagery is not yet available. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar 
wind was mostly neutral apart from a 2-hour southward excursion 
down to -8nT after 12UT. A weak shock was detected by ACE at 
09/1956UT, consistent with the arrival of the CME observed on 
6-Jul. The solar wind speed remained in the 300-350km/s range 
until the shock, after which it has hovered around 400km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   01112222
      Cocos Island         4   0-121122
      Darwin               4   10112122
      Townsville           5   11122222
      Learmonth            6   02112232
      Alice Springs        4   01112122
      Norfolk Island       3   00111222
      Culgoora             5   11112222
      Gingin               5   01111232
      Camden               5   11112222
      Canberra             4   11111221
      Hobart               3   01111221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   00220211
      Casey                5   03112211
      Mawson               6   12222222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1231 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    12    Unsettled
11 Jul     5    Quiet
12 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the last 
24 hours. The CME which arrived late on 9-Jul could cause unsettled 
conditions on 10-Jul, with some active periods at high latitudes. 
Quiet conditions are expected for 11-12 Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a chance of SWFs.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jul    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 8 
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Moderate MUF depressions were 
observed in Northern Australia at times over the last 24 hours, 
with daytime enhancements in Niue and Cocus Island regions. Mostly 
normal HF conditions are expected for the next three days, with 
a chance of SWFs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    33400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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