[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 13 issued 2329 UT on 15 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 16 10:29:37 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Five, low level, C flares from region 1650 (S30W64)
and large region 1654 (N08W17). Most regions appear stable; region
1652 (N19W57) has declined while 1654 has shown some decrease
in area but an increase in spots. STEREO images show a CME that
is unlikely to be geo-effective, associated with a 0733 UT flare
from 1650. ACE data show the north-south IMF component ranged
between +/-4 nT with the wind speed decreasing from about 560
to 400 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly
undisturbed. There is a chance of a slight disturbance on 17
Jan due to the weak CME on 13 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Cocos Island 2 21111010
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 9 32223222
Alice Springs 6 21213112
Norfolk Island 6 22112113
Gnangara 7 22223212
Camden 5 22212112
Canberra 5 22212111
Hobart 5 22212121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 22213000
Casey 21 36432231
Mawson 11 33222241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3222 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 6 Quiet
17 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Chance of isolated active periods at higher latitudes
on 17 Jan due to CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced to 25% 04-07 UT. Depressed to 25% 22-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Depressions to 25% 03-05 and 11-12 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Depressions 20-25% at Darwin 19-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced to 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
17 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
18 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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