[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 13 issued 2327 UT on 14 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 15 10:27:40 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Six C class flares from regions 1652 (N18W41), 1654
(N08W09) and 1657 (S17W18), the largest a C6.5 at 0122 UT from
AR 1652. ACE data show the north-south IMF component ranging
between +/-7 nT, settling over the reporting period. The solar
wind speed ranged between 500 and 590 km/s. The solar wind is
expected to be mostly undisturbed on 15 and 16 Jan, although
wind speed may remain at moderate levels on 15 Jan. A weak CME,
observed in LASCO and STEREO images on 13 Jan, may impact Earth
on 17 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods 00-03 UT.
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32223222
Cocos Island 6 32222111
Darwin 10 42223222
Townsville 9 32223222
Learmonth 14 42333323
Alice Springs 8 32223212
Norfolk Island 8 32222222
Gnangara 11 42233222
Camden 7 32222221
Canberra 7 32222121
Hobart 11 33323222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 42244221
Casey 26 46533322
Mawson 21 34334344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2120 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 6 Quiet
17 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: A weak (11nT) impulse was observed at 0116UT in the
IPS magnetometer data on 14 Jan. Expect isolated activity, particularly
at higher latitudes, while the solar wind remains slightly elevated.
Possible active levels on 17 Jan with increased activity at high
latitudes due to weak CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
21-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 30% 21-23
UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Enhanced
to 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
16 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
17 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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