[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 13 issued 2319 UT on 12 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 13 10:19:51 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 12 January, with
several C class flares from active regions 1652(N19W13) and 1654(N08E19).
The largest was a C5.3 class X-ray flare from active region 1654
at 0224UT. Expect Low to Moderate solar activity over the next
three days with a slight chance of X-class flares due to active
region 1654. The solar wind speed ranged between 340 to 410 km/s
and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +5/-5nT
over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22121112
Cocos Island 3 22211010
Darwin 8 32131123
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 32221123
Alice Springs 5 21122112
Norfolk Island 5 31111112
Gnangara 6 31122122
Camden 4 22111112
Canberra 3 21111012
Hobart 4 22112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 21011000
Casey 13 44331122
Mawson 7 33112122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0001 1013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 6 Quiet
15 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with isolated
cases of Active levels at high latitudes during the UT day, 12
January . Expect gradual return to mostly quiet levels over the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day, 12 January, however notable depressions were note at
Niue station and Northern Australia during the local day. Normal
to enhanced conditions are expected to prevail over the next
3 days due to elevated EUV associated with several active regions
on the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 46100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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