[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 13 issued 2326 UT on 11 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 12 10:26:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0911UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1511UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 11 January,
with several C class flares and two M-class flares observed.
The largest was an M1.2 class X-ray flare from active region
1654 at 0911UT and was associated with a type II and IV sweeps.
Expect Low to Moderate solar activity over the next three days
with a slight chance of X-class flares due to active region 1654.
The solar wind speed ranged between 275 to 360 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +5/-8nT over the last 24 hours.
Expect solar wind speed to elevate to near 400 km/s today due
to coronal hole influence. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME
occurring on the east limb of the Sun first observed at 11/0224UT,
however it is not expected to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11121012
Cocos Island 4 2222100-
Darwin 5 02121023
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 4 11122012
Alice Springs 4 11211022
Gnangara 4 2112211-
Camden 4 11111013
Canberra 2 11111020
Hobart 4 22121012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 8 2333200-
Mawson 4 2122210-
Davis 13 23333---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 12 Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT
day 11 January. Expect mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with
isolated cases of Active conditions at high latitudes today,
12 January. On 13-14 January expect a gradual return to Quiet
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to enhanced over the
UT day, 11 January. Normal to enhanced conditions are expected
to prevail over the next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated
with several active regions on the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 40800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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