[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 13 issued 2354 UT on 01 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 2 10:54:12 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with a single
C1 flare from region 1640(N28W06). Expect Very Low to Low solar
activity 02-Jan, with the chance of an isolated C-class flare.
The solar wind declined steadily over the UT day to be near 300km/s
at time of reporting.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 2 21111001
Norfolk Island 2 11000012
Culgoora 0 10000001
Gnangara 3 22111011
Camden 2 10111011
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 32211011
Mawson 5 33011012
Davis 6 22222112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 5 Quiet
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic activity has been Quiet and should remain Quiet
for the next day. Some Unsettled periods may be expected on the
3rd of Jan UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 62000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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