[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 12 issued 2326 UT on 31 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 1 10:26:45 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Expect
Very Low solar activity 01-Jan, with the chance of an isolated
C-class flare. The solar wind declined steadily over the UT day
to be near 350km/s at time of reporting. The IMF was stable.
Expect quiet solar wind conditions over the next 48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21100112
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 5 21211122
Learmonth 3 22110111
Norfolk Island 1 11000111
Culgoora 2 10100112
Gnangara 3 21111111
Camden 4 21111112
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 3 21100112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 5 22211122
Davis 6 22222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 5 Quiet
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed 31-Dec and are
expected for the next two days (01-02 Jan). Unsettled conditions
may be observed day 3 of the forecast period (03-Jan).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 97800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list