[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 19 10:30:28 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
C-class x-ray activity less than C2. There was a SW limb CME
associated with C1.5 flare and radio bursts at ~0530UT but the
CME is not likely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed was 350-400km/s
and is expected to slightly rise over the 19th Dec UT. IMF Bz,the
north-south component of the solar interplanetary magnetic field
ranged in the neutral +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to be
Low for the next 3 days with a ~20% chance of M-class events
from the 9 active regions, predominantly AR1921 and AR1928.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11110212
Darwin 3 11110212
Townsville 4 22110212
Learmonth 3 11100212
Alice Springs 3 11110212
Gingin 3 11100212
Camden 3 11210112
Canberra 1 01100101
Launceston 5 12211212
Hobart 4 12210112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 12200012
Casey 17 34532223
Mawson 17 33322245
Davis 15 34432232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 N/A
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Dec 6 Quiet
21 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with quiescent solar wind speed 350-400km/s and no significant
IMF Bz southwards. Quiet conditions expected for the next 24
hours with no inbound CMEs or high speed solar wind from coronal
holes. Solar wind speedy predicted to rise slightly over next
24 hours from a co-rotating region, possibly causing some Unsettled
periods. Predominantly Quiet conditions expected for 20Dec to
21Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours, particularly in near-equatorial northern regions
with an enhanced equatorial anomaly, particularly at night. Strong
sporadic Es, either partially or completely blanketing, observed
on the mid east coast (NSW/ACT) in the middle of the day and
evening. Weaker Es observed in the south-west of WA around midday
and midnight and in the south-east (TAS) in the late afternoon
and late evening. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected
to continue for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3 days
with enhanced MUF's of approx 15%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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