[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 18 10:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Very Low
Flares: nil. GOES data outage from 17UT
f10.7cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
f10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low to Low over the last 24
hours with only B-class x-ray activity monitored before GOES
spacecraft data unavailability from 17UT. Solar wind speed was
400-450km/s is expected to settle at 400km/sec over the next
day. IMF Bz,the north-south component of the solar interplanetary
magnetic field ranged in the neutral +/-5nT till ACE spacecraft
data unavailability from 17UT. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days with a low chance of M-class
events. Of the larger spot groups; 1917 (S16W62) is declining
and 1921 (N07W27) is stable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21000122
Darwin 3 21100122
Townsville 3 21000122
Learmonth 3 22000122
Alice Springs 2 11000121
Culgoora 2 11000122
Gingin 4 21100131
Camden 2 11000121
Canberra 1 10000011
Launceston 3 21100122
Hobart 2 21000121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11000011
Casey 16 44421233
Mawson 9 32111242
Davis 16 43322252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg not available
Planetary N/A 2210 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 5 Quiet
19 Dec 5 Quiet
20 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with quiescent solar wind speed 400-450km/s and no significant
IMF Bz southwards. Quiet conditions expected for the next 24
hours with no inbound CMEs or high speed solar wind from coronal
holes. Solar wind plasma density predicted to rise somewhat over
next 24 hours, but not accompanied by significant solar wind
speed increase, so geomagnetic effect should be minimal. Also
predominantly Quiet conditions for 19Dec to 20Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours, particularly in near-equatorial northern regions
with an enhanced equatorial anomaly, particularly at night. Normal
to enhanced ionospheric support expected to continue for Australian
and NZ regions for the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx
15%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 58800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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