[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 13 issued 2345 UT on 15 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 16 10:45:46 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
minor C-class events. Solar wind speed gradually declined from
600km/s at 00UT to be ~450km/s at the time of this report, and
is expected to continue falling at the same rate over the next
24 hours. Bz,the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +7nT and -2nT over the UT
day. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days
with only a slight chance of M-class events. There is currently
7 numbered regions on disk of which only regions 1917 (S15W35)
and 1921 (N07W00) have shown signs of growth in the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Darwin 5 22212-12
Townsville 7 22213-21
Learmonth 7 22213-12
Alice Springs 6 22213-11
Culgoora 0 00000000
Gingin 6 21212321
Camden 8 22213312
Canberra 5 11202311
Launceston 7 22313-11
Hobart 9 22313-31
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 11223210
Casey 23 45532333
Mawson 14 43322422
Davis 16 33433333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3421 1342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec 6 Quiet
18 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with an isolated Active period between 14UT and
17UT at IPS low/mid latitude stations. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet conditions for 17Dec to
18Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with occasional depressed periods for mid to high latitudes.
Normal HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with enhanced
MUF's of ~15% for low to mid latitudes. Slight chance of short-wave
fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australian and NZ regions
over the last 24 hours with depressed conditions during local
day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and notable sporadic E in Northern
AUS regions. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected
for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3 days with enhanced
MUF's of approx 15% for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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