[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 13 issued 2349 UT on 14 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 15 10:49:39 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C2.3 xray flare from region 1917 at 1124UT.
Solar wind speed gradually increased from 300km/s at 00UT to
be ~600km/s at the time of this report due to a coronal hole
influenced high speed solar wind stream. Bz,the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +/-12nT
between 00UT and 10UT. Solar wind speed is expected remain elevated
for the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days with small chance of M-class events while the
10cm flux levels are expected to remain at elevated levels. ACE
EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
14/0600UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 33322333
Darwin 12 33322233
Townsville 13 33322333
Learmonth 13 -33233-3
Alice Springs 13 33322333
Culgoora 1 000--111
Gingin 12 333123-3
Camden 12 33322332
Canberra 11 33312332
Launceston 13 --323--3
Hobart 12 33323-32
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 20 33203642
Casey 38 56642344
Mawson 26 55322453
Davis 21 45423333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 11 Unsettled
16 Dec 7 Quiet
17 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours
with possible Active periods due to the current high speed solar
wind stream from a northern-hemisphere/equatorial positioned
coronal hole. Quiet conditions for 16Dec to 17Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUF enhancements ~15% seen at low to mid latitudes
and periods of degraded conditions for high latitudes. Slight
chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed across all Australian and NZ
regions over the last 24 hours with degraded ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Notable sporadic E observed for IPS Hobart station throughout
the UT day. Normal ionospheric support expected for Australian
and NZ regions for the next 24 hours with enhanced MUF's 15%
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Return to enhanced conditions
for entire Australia and NZ regions for 16Dec to 17Dec as geomagnetic
activity subsides and continued strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm)
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 278 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 23800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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