[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 31 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 108/58 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous day. A long
duration C8 flare from region 1836(N11E30) occurred beginning
at 02UT. A CME was seen in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO
and STEREO coronagraphs. The bulk of the material is directed
to the east of the Earth, however we are likely to be clipped
by the edge of this event, with an estimated arrival time around
09UT on the 1st of September. A CIR ahead of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream was seen in ACE data arriving midway through
the 30th of August UT. The IMF Bt has stayed below 10nT with
several southward excursions. Wind speeds have been up to 450
km/s. The high speed stream is expected to be in effect for the
next 24-48 hours. Solar flare activity is expected to be Low
with a small chance of M class flares over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11122222
Cocos Island 6 11232221
Darwin 8 11232223
Townsville 9 21233223
Learmonth 6 10122322
Alice Springs 6 11132222
Norfolk Island 4 11122112
Culgoora 5 10122222
Gingin 7 10122323
Camden 6 11222222
Canberra 4 00122222
Hobart 5 10122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00102221
Casey 10 23332222
Mawson 21 21212356
Davis 19 12332355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1001 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 15 Unsettled
01 Sep 25 Active
02 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet in mainland
Australia. Unsettled conditions may be expected over the next
day due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. An expected
arrival of the edge of a CME on the 1st of September may bring
Active conditions on arrival, followed by continued Unsettled
conditions into the 2nd of September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. Some mildly depressed conditions may be
experienced in southern regions on the 1st and 2nd of September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 47000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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