[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 30 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with a single C1 X-ray
flare over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
A CME was observed starting from around 06UT in SOHO and STEREO
coronagraphs. It appears to be directed mostly to the south of
the ecliptic plane and is not expected to be geo-effective. Elevated
solar wind speeds are expected over the next few days due to
an anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 10000100
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 11100112
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 10000100
Norfolk Island 0 10000000
Culgoora 0 00000101
Gingin 1 10001100
Camden 1 01001100
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 33210010
Mawson 4 22111003
Davis 4 22221100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 43211111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Aug 12 Unsettled
01 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Unsettled to Active conditions
are expected on day 1 due to the anticipated arrival of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.4E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 81300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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