[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 30 09:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             105/54             108/58

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with a single C1 X-ray 
flare over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient. 
A CME was observed starting from around 06UT in SOHO and STEREO 
coronagraphs. It appears to be directed mostly to the south of 
the ecliptic plane and is not expected to be geo-effective. Elevated 
solar wind speeds are expected over the next few days due to 
an anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000100
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           2   11100112
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Alice Springs        0   10000100
      Norfolk Island       0   10000000
      Culgoora             0   00000101
      Gingin               1   10001100
      Camden               1   01001100
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   33210010
      Mawson               4   22111003
      Davis                4   22221100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   43211111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
31 Aug    12    Unsettled
01 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Unsettled to Active conditions 
are expected on day 1 due to the anticipated arrival of a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.4E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    81300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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