[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 13 issued 2337 UT on 17 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 18 09:37:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1824UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 1942UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the UT day, with the
most significant activity an M3.3 X-ray flare event at 1824UT
from AR1818(S07W33). This region showed further growth over the
last 24 hours, remains beta-gamma-delta class and may produce
further M class events over the period. Associated with the abovementioned
flare were Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a CME with a
reported speed near 1300km/s. The relevant period of imagery
from SOHO LASCO is not yet available. Further analysis will be
given in tomorrow's report when more imagery should be available.
A CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery after 0130UT. This appears
to be associated with a reported Disappearing Solar Filament
in the North-East quadrant, it is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speed decreased from 800Km/s to 600km/s over the last
24 hours. Bz oscillated within an average range of +/-4nT, not
creating significant geomagnetic activity over 17 August. Solar
wind speed is expected to continue to decline over the next 24
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Mostly Quiet.
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Cocos Island 3 22211100
Darwin 7 23212212
Townsville 6 23212112
Learmonth 3 22202001
Alice Springs 4 22212101
Norfolk Island 4 22212101
Culgoora 6 23212112
Gingin 5 22212111
Camden 6 23212111
Canberra 4 22212001
Hobart 6 23222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 22312101
Casey 11 44312112
Mawson 17 44433223
Davis 17 34423314
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 28 4642 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 7 Quiet
19 Aug 7 Quiet
20 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours with a chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% 18-21UT..
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 710 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 307000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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