[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 13 issued 2340 UT on 16 Aug 2013

Sat Aug 17 09:40:33 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 120/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels and is expected to remain 
Low for the next 3 days, although there is a chance for M-class 
flares over the next few days. Active regions 1817(S21W41) and 
1818(S07W17) showed signs of growth over the last 24 hours while 
the other regions currently on disk remain relatively unchanged. 
Two CMEs observed 0320UT and 1140UT 16 August in the STEREO and 
SOHO satellite imagery were determined to be directed to the 
solar farside and should not be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds 
remained elevated during 16 August under the influence of a coronal 
hole wind stream, reaching 850 km/s at 1145UT and are presently 
around 700 km/s. This was associated with some moderate (+/-5nT)fluctuations 
in IMF Bz. There was a brief excursion to -10nT ~0240UT. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to decline slowly over the next few 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   34324322
      Cocos Island         9   23223312
      Darwin              15   34324322
      Townsville          15   34324322
      Learmonth           13   33324322
      Alice Springs       15   34324322
      Norfolk Island      12   33323322
      Culgoora            15   34324322
      Gingin              17   34225332
      Camden              15   34324322
      Canberra            11   23224322
      Hobart              17   33334423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    33   35356522
      Casey               51   44433853
      Mawson              64   57543666
      Davis               45   45433673

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin              53   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16   4323 3423     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    16    Unsettled to Active
18 Aug    12    Unsettled
19 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active throughout 
the day with an isolated Minor storm period observed at Gingin 
station 1400UT. Minor to Major storm intervals were observed 
at high latitudes. Expect continuing Unsettled to Active day 
one, gradually declining to mostly Quiet by day three.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Aug    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      83
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for most locations 
over the last 24 hours with the daily T index above predicted 
monthly average. Expect these conditions to prevail for the next 
three days. The 10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to increase during 
the next 3 days and the outlook is for enhanced ionospheric support.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 495 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   156000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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