[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 13 issued 2338 UT on 04 Aug 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 5 09:38:58 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: No X-ray flare activity observed over the UT day Aug 
04. A weak N-directed CME was observed after 03UT and a weak 
SE-directed CME after 1530UT. Neither event has an Earth-directed 
component. A moderate NE-directed CME was observed after 07UT. 
This appears to be associated with a reported Disappearing Solar 
Filament in the NE quadrant. STEREO imagery shows a strong N-directed 
component but little, if any, in the ecliptic. Solar wind speed 
increased over a few hours from 300 to 500km/s after 15UT with 
onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. There was 
a sharper increase in solar wind speed before 22UT which may 
be a signature of the CME observed Aug 02. The IMF Bz component 
maintained moderate Southward bias to -13nT after 13UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12221423
      Cocos Island         9   11221423
      Darwin              11   22221433
      Townsville          12   22231433
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Alice Springs        9   12221423
      Norfolk Island       8   21221323
      Culgoora            10   12221433
      Gingin               9   11220433
      Camden               9   12221423
      Canberra             8   11220423
      Hobart               7   12220323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    17   01441533
      Casey               10   22321333
      Mawson              47   22232368
      Davis               21   32332363

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active
06 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet early in the UT day 
becoming Unsettled to Active during the second half of the UT 
day. This followed a significant increase in solar wind parameters 
after 12UT. Active conditions were observed at most IPS stations 
14-17UT. Minor storm intervals at G1 level were observed at high 
latitudes. Expect continuing Unsettled to Active periods day 
one, gradually declining to mostly Quiet by day three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes days one and 
two due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Variable enhancements/depressions to 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Mild night-time enhancements.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month  T index
Jul      83
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values 
with variable conditions observed generally Equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Expect short-term variability Equatorial/N Aus regions 
days one and two. Minor degradations possible next three days 
Antarctic/S Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    26800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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