[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 4 09:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day Aug 03.
Solar wind parameters remain nominal. Latest Enlil model run
suggests a gradual rise in solar wind velocity, probably due
to coronal holes now in the W solar hemisphere. A brief mild
surge in solar wind velocity is anticipated early in the UT day
Aug 05 due to a glancing blow from one of two CME's observed
Aug 02. The subject CME was associated with a disappearing solar
filament in the SW quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11001001
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 3 21101012
Townsville 2 11001002
Learmonth 3 111-----
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 1 12000001
Culgoora 1 11001001
Gingin 1 01000011
Camden 1 11001000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11001001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 22200011
Mawson 7 11100115
Davis 2 01201111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1101 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 6 Quiet
05 Aug 12 Unsettled. Chance Active periods.
06 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field remained Quiet at all
latitudes. The anticipated disturbance due to a coronal hole
wind stream has not yet eventuated. Solar wind modelling suggests
a gradual increase in solar wind velocity Aug 04 and a superimposed
mild shock early in the UT day Aug 05, bringing Unsettled to
occasionally Active conditions day two of the forecast period.
Conditions should decline on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced to 30% around local dawn Aug 04.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with variable conditions observed generally Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Minor degradations possible next three days Antarctic/S
Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 34400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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