[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 2 09:30:28 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day Aug 01.
Numbered regions on the visible disk appear stable. AR 1806 (S15W03)
showed some growth overnight. Solar wind speed remained steady
at ~350 km/s. The IMF Bz component maintained mild Southward
bias to -4nT until 16UT, then trended neutral/Northwards. Solar
wind parameters are expected to become enhanced after mid-UT
day Aug 02 under the influence of a mild to moderate coronal
hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 4 21111202
Townsville 3 11111201
Learmonth 2 12101200
Alice Springs 2 11101101
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Culgoora 2 01111101
Gingin 1 01101100
Camden 2 11111100
Canberra 1 11001100
Hobart 3 13111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00012000
Casey 4 23210110
Mawson 7 33211211
Davis 6 23312200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 12 Unsettled. Chance active periods.
04 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Some Unsettled intervals observed at high latitudes
during the first half of the UT day due to sustained mild Southward
IMF Bz. Expect Quiet conditions first half of the UT day Aug
02. Conditions expected to become Unsettled due to anticipated
onset of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. Unsettled to
occasionally Active conditions likely to persist into day three
of the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% at times local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% at times local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced to 30% before local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with variable conditions observed N Aus region. Minor degradations
possible next three days Antarctic/S Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 43800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list