[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 1 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed. There
was a C1.5 level event from AR1809 at 0518UT. Numbered regions
on the visible solar disk appear stable. Solar wind speed was
steady at ~375 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF sustained mid
Southward bias to -5nT over the second half of the UT day, a
level which is unlikely to promote significant merging with the
geomagnetic field. Solar wind parameters may become slightly
enhanced days two and three of the forecast period due to a small
N hemisphere coronal hole now past central solar meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 0 10000010
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 2 11101110
Alice Springs 1 11100011
Norfolk Island 2 12100011
Culgoora 2 21100011
Gingin 2 10100120
Camden 2 11101011
Canberra 1 01000011
Hobart 2 11011011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01021010
Casey 4 22111121
Mawson 14 44111243
Davis 15 32222254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 6 Quiet
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The observed geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes
with isolated Unsettled intervals at polar cusp latitudes due
to sustained mild southward IMF Bz component. Expect Quiet conditions
day one. Unsettled to occasionally Active periods possible days
two and three due to a mild coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month T index
Jun 83
Jul 69
Aug 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with moderate night-time depressions. Minor degradations possible
days two and three of the forecast period Antarctic/S Aus/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 67500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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