[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 22 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
1723 (S19W44) produced a single C2 flare, but most of the activity
was from region 1726 (N13W18) which produced a regular stream
of C-class flares, the largest being a C4.5 at 21/1839 UT. Further
C and possible M-class activity from this region is expected,
resulting in low to moderate activity over the next 3 days. Coronal
holes in the southern and northern hemispheres will move into
geoeffective positions on 23 and 24-Apr, respectively. The solar
wind speed remained below 300 km/s over the last 24 hours, with
the IMF Bz component mostly positive up to 5 nT. An increase
in the wind speed is expected from the influence of the coronal
holes, especially on 24-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21110111
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 4 22111211
Alice Springs 2 21000111
Culgoora 2 11100111
Gingin 3 12110111
Camden 1 11000101
Canberra 2 31000100
Hobart 2 11110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22110000
Mawson 1 11000100
Davis 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0002 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 5 Quiet
23 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 22-Apr. As a result
of coronal hole high-speed streams, some unsettled periods are
possible on 23-Apr and unsettled to active conditions expected
on 24-Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours,
with minor to moderate MUF depressions in equatorial regions.
Similar conditions are expected on 22-23 Apr. Moderate HF degradations
and MUF depressions are possible from late on 24-Apr due to an
expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 22700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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