[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 21 09:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Today's largest
flare was a C1.5 flare that peaked at 0036UT. Solar wind speed
stayed around 300km/s for most parts of the UT day today whereas
the Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-4 nT during
this period. Low levels of solar activity with slight possibility
of M-class activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11122101
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 4 11222111
Alice Springs 3 11122001
Culgoora 3 11122001
Gingin 3 11122101
Camden 2 01121001
Canberra 3 11------
Hobart 3 11122101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00033000
Casey 4 12222001
Mawson 2 01112101
Davis 6 22222112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 3 Quiet
22 Apr 3 Quiet
23 Apr 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next 2 days. Recurrent
pattern suggests some possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity
to unsettled levels on the 3rd day (23 April).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor MUF depressions. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor MUF depressions. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 15900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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