[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 13 issued 2322 UT on 09 Apr 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 10 09:22:30 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Seven low level
C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C2.9 at
0859UT from region 1718(N21W06). Solar wind speed stayed
between 340 and 370 km/s during most parts of the UT
day today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +4/-3nT
during this period, staying positive for relatively longer
periods of time. Low level of solar activity with some
possibility of isolated M-class flare may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 6 2222212-
Townsville 5 222211--
Learmonth 5 2212211-
Norfolk Island 3 12111111
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 4 2211111-
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 1101000-
Hobart 2 12110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 0100000-
Casey 6 2332000-
Mawson 4 3212000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 6 Quiet
11 Apr 5 Quiet
12 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with mild to
significant MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Apr 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with mild to
significant MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 31000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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