[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 13 issued 2329 UT on 08 Apr 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 9 09:29:04 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today with one C1.6 flare
observed at 1550UT from region 11714. Currently there are eight
numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed
stayed between 340 and 370 km/s during most parts of the UT day
today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during this
period, staying positive for relatively longer periods of time.
Low level of solar activity with some possibility of isolated
M-class flare may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 4 22111111
Norfolk Island 3 11111111
Culgoora 1 01100001
Gingin 3 11111111
Camden 0 00100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 6 13133000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 23211111
Mawson 3 11111012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1211 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
Quiet to unsettled conditions for the next 2 days and quiet conditions
for the third day may be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most circuits today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the third day.
There is some possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on
the first and the second days, especially on mid and high latitude
locations. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most circuits today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the third day.
There is some possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on
the first and the second days. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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