[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 2 10:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: All regions appear stable including large region 11711
(S19 E52). Two unnumbered regions at N07 E38 and N11 E86. No
CMEs observed in available LASCO and STEREO images. ACE observations
indicate an undisturbed solar wind with speed decreasing from
480 to 410 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 11131212
Darwin 7 2223121-
Townsville 7 1223221-
Learmonth 8 2223231-
Norfolk Island 6 22221212
Culgoora 4 11131201
Gingin 5 2113121-
Camden 4 11131201
Canberra 4 1113120-
Hobart 5 11131202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 1014220-
Casey 9 2242221-
Mawson 8 3322221-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1010 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 6 Quiet
03 Apr 6 Quiet
04 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-30% enhancements
07-13 UT and 15-20% depressions 15-21, 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-50% 07-14 UT
at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 94500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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