[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 1 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 31 March.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low to Low over the
next 3 days with a moderate chance for a C-class flare from active
region 1711. The solar wind speed ranged from 560 to 480km/s
over the last 24 hours and is expected to return to light levels
today, 1 April. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +4/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21111212
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 6 22221222
Norfolk Island 3 2111110-
Culgoora 2 2110010-
Gingin 5 21111222
Camden 1 10100111
Canberra 1 11000110
Hobart 2 1110020-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 10100100
Casey 7 23310222
Mawson 25 22222266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 5522 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 4 Quiet
02 Apr 4 Quiet
03 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic activity observed during the UT day,
31 March. Expect mostly Quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 67 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 67 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 67 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were depressed over the Northern Australian
and Antarctic regions over the UT day, 31 March. Expect MUFs
to return to near predicted values over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 549 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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