[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 12 issued 2329 UT on 05 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 6 09:29:23 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 05 September
with several C class flares from active regions 1564(S14E00)
and 1560(N04W59). The solar wind speed was moderately elevated
over the UT day and the Bz component of the IMF ranged between
+/-10nT early in the UT day resulting in periods of reconnection
with the geomagnetic field. It then settled to mostly northward.
Expect solar activity to be Low to Moderate (chance of isolated
M-class flares from active regions 1564 and 1560) for the next
3 days, 06-08 September. Expect the solar wind to remain slightly
elevated today, 06 September, and to slowly settle back to normal
levels over the following two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 16 34532221
Darwin 16 34532222
Townsville 17 34532322
Learmonth 17 -4532321
Norfolk Island 16 43532221
Camden 15 33------
Canberra 12 33432221
Hobart 16 34532221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 25 55543221
Casey 22 44632231
Mawson 41 56643254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 77 (Active)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 3352 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 4 September
and is current for 4-6 Sep. The geomagnetic field was Quiet to
Active over the UT day, 05 September, with isolated cases of
Storm levels at higher latitudes early in the UT day due to reconnection
resulting from a southward Bz component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field. Expect Quiet to Unsettle conditions with isolated
cases of Active levels at higher latitudes over the next 3 days,
06-08 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions noted during the UT day,
05 September, with some enhancements at low to mid latitudes
and depressions in the Antarctic region. Expect near predicted
HF conditions for the next three days, 06-08 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
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