[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 12 issued 2347 UT on 04 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 5 09:47:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Low
Flares: None
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 04 September
with several C class flares from active regions 1564(S14E13)
and 1565(N11E08). The solar wind speed was slightly elevated
over the UT day and the Bz component of the IMF ranged between
+/-10nT resulting in periods of reconnection with the geomagnetic
field. Proton event in progress just at threshold levels, 10pfu.
Expect solar activity to remain Low for the next 3 days, mainly
due to active region 1564. Expect the solar wind to remain slightly
elevated today, 05 September and to slowly settle back to normal
levels over the following two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled with isolated
Active levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22332112
Darwin 9 32322213
Townsville 15 333-----
Learmonth 11 133-----
Norfolk Island 12 323-----
Camden 8 22332112
Canberra 7 222-----
Hobart 9 23332112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 16 234-----
Casey 27 444-----
Mawson 30 345-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 012
Planetary 014
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 010
Planetary 012 3454 6544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 12 Unsettled
06 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 4 September
and is current for 4-6 Sep. The geomagnetic field was Quiet to
Unsettled over the UT day, 04 September, with isolated cases
of Active levels at higher latitudes. Expect this trend to continue
today, 05 September, and then to return to mostly Quiet levels
with Unsettled levels at higher latitudes over the following
two days. Note some stations have incomplete data due to an internet
connection problem that is being worked on, sorry for the inconvenience.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed conditions noted during the UT day,
04 September, at mid to high latitudes and enhancements at low
latitudes due to geomagnetic activity. Expect a gradual return
to predicted HF condition over the next three days, with depressions
of 5-15% today at mid to high latitudes and slight enhancements
at low latitudes. Note some stations have incomplete data due
to an internet connection problem that is being worked on, sorry
for the inconvenience.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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