[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 12 issued 2330 UT on 01 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 2 09:30:27 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with several C-class X-ray flares,
the greatest a C3. Further analysis of yesterday's CME with now
available satellite imagery (STEREO) strengthens the expectation
of a glancing blow from this event sometime around the middle
of the UT day September 3, day 2 of this forecast. The solar
wind conditions are ambient. Solar activity is expected to remain
at mostly Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12321111
Darwin 6 22321111
Townsville 7 12322222
Learmonth 7 22322221
Norfolk Island 4 22321000
Camden 4 11321001
Canberra 4 11321001
Hobart 4 11322001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 11141000
Casey 6 22221222
Mawson 20 43211336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 20 Active
04 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with a brief
Unsettled period between 8-10UT. Conditions are expected to remain
mostly Quiet until the expected arrival of the edge of a CME
sometime around the middle of the UT day on day 2 (Sept 3) causing
Unsettled to Active conditions with some possible isolated Minor
Storm periods. Unsettled conditions may continue into day 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: A minor Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event is in progress
due to increased high energy proton flux from recent solar activity.
This will make HF propagation conditions poor in polar regions.
Conditions are expected to improve by midway through Sept 2.
Some disturbed conditions may be experienced on Sept 3-4 due
to minor CME effects. Low and mid latitudes should be mostly
unaffected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are at near predicted values across Australia.
These conditions are expected to persist for the next day. On
day 2 (3rd Sep UT) geomagnetic activity is expected to cause
reduction in MUFs, particularly in southern regions, by around
15%. This is expected to continue into day 3.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 16400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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