[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 12 issued 2340 UT on 31 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 1 09:40:44 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity has been Low with several C class
flares. The largest flare was a long duration C8 flare starting
just before 20UT and continuing for several hours. This appears
to be associated with a large filament eruption on the south-east
limb which is also associated with TypeII and TypeIV solar radio
bursts. A partial halo CME associated with this event can be
seen in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. The bulk of the material
is directed away from the Earth but a glancing blow is probable
sometime around the middle of the UT day on the 3rd of September.
More detailed analysis of this event will be given in tomorrow's
report when more satellite imagery should be available. The solar
wind speed is currently at ambient levels with near neutral
IMF Bz. Solar flare activity is expected to be Low to Moderate
over the next few days. Previously M flaring region 1564(S13E70)
rotated onto the eastern limb in the past day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 3 12111002
Townsville 4 1221211-
Learmonth 3 12121011
Norfolk Island 1 11001010
Camden 2 11111001
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 12200000
Mawson 1 1110000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 5 Quiet
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 2 days. On day 3 a probable glancing blow from
a CME is expected to cause some Unsettled activity with possible
isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions are expected to be good for the next 2 days.
On day 3 some disturbed conditions may be experienced at higher
latitudes due to a probable glancing blow from a CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are at near predicted values across Australia with
enhanced MUFs in equatorial regions. These conditions are expected
to persist for the next 2 days. On day 3 (3rd Sep UT) geomagnetic
activity is expected to cause some reduction in MUFs, particularly
at southern latitudes. On present analysis this activity is expected
to be relatively mild and hence any depressed periods are expected
to be isolated and mild (15% depressed at most).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 51200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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