[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 12 issued 2335 UT on 13 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 14 10:35:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 13-Oct. Region 1589 (N13E19)
remains the most complex region on the disc (beta-gamma mag class),
and has the potential to produce isolated M/X class flares. The
Earth moved into a corotating interaction region ahead of a coronal
hole wind stream late on 12-Oct. The magnetic field within the
CIR had a predominantly southward orientation resulting an extended
IMF Bz southwards for more than 12 hours from 12/2100UT to 13/1000UT.
Solar wind speed increased following the passage of the CIR and
remains near 600km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 24 23455432
Darwin 17 23344432
Townsville 18 23344433
Learmonth 25 23355532
Norfolk Island 19 22445332
Camden 24 23455432
Canberra 24 23455432
Hobart 39 23566542
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 78 15687642
Casey - --------
Mawson 83 67555766
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 12 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3432 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 12 Unsettled
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 13-14 Oct. The geomagnetic field was Quiet
to Unsettled until ~06UT, after which a sustained period of southwards
IMF associated with a co-rotating interaction region resulted
in Active to Minor Storm conditions at mid latitudes, with Major
Storm conditions at high latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic activity
persisted through to ~18UT, decreasing to mostly Unsettled for
the remainder of the day. Expect ongoing Unsettled conditions
14-Oct, with isolated Active periods predominantly at high latitudes,
as a result of a coronal hole wind stream. Mostly Quiet conditions
should return 15-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 12 October
and is current for 13-14 Oct. HF conditions were variable over
the UT day, with mostly normal conditions prior to 06UT, after
which degraded HF conditions were observed in response to elevated
geomagnetic activity, primarily in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
MUFs were mostly near predicted months values in N.Aus, and up
to 30% depressed during the local day in S.Aus/NZ. Ongoing minor
MUF depressions and moderate degradation of HF conditions are
expected 14-Oct, predominantly in the S.Aus/NZ regions during
local day time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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