[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 12 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 13 10:30:22 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 12-Oct, with most of the activity
originating from beta-gamma classified active region 1589 (N13E33).
There were no significant CMEs. Isolated M class flares are possible
from this region. The Earth remained under the influence of a
coronal hole wind stream 12-Oct, with elevated solar wind speed,
near 500km/s. Expect a subsequent coronal hole to move into geoeffective
position 13-Oct, elevating solar wind speed for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet, with an isolated Active
period
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 33334321
Darwin 12 32233332
Townsville 15 3333432-
Learmonth 15 3234431-
Norfolk Island 8 22223222
Camden 13 23334321
Canberra 10 23323321
Hobart 13 33324321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 23236310
Casey - --------
Mawson 31 55343544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Oct 12 Unsettled
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled 12-Oct under
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions early 13 Oct, becoming Unsettled with isolated
Active periods possible later in the day and into 14-Oct as a
subsequent high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Oct 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 12 October
and is current for 13-14 Oct. Ionospheric support continues to
strengthen following recent geomagnetic activity, however MUF
depressions continued during the local day in the S.Aus/NZ regions.
Ongoing MUF depression of up to 20% are expected 13-Oct, predominantly
in the S.Aus/NZ regions during local day time. Otherwise, mostly
normal HF conditions are expected 13-Oct. Moderate degradation
in HF conditions may be observed 14-15 Oct due to an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 59900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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