[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 12 issued 2350 UT on 05 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 6 09:50:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A long duration
B7.8 flare from region 1584 was observed. This flare peaked
at 0730UT and is associated with an earthward directed partial
halo CME. This CME may strengthen the solar wind stream late
on 8 October or in the first half of 9 October. Solar wind
speed stayed between 300 and 350 km/s for most parts of the
UT day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between
+/-5 nT during this time, staying southwards for relatively
longer periods of time. Very Low to Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11010211
Darwin 2 11010202
Townsville 4 12111221
Learmonth 4 2211121-
Norfolk Island 1 11000111
Camden 2 01010211
Canberra 1 01000200
Hobart 2 01010211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 01011111
Casey 7 2331121-
Mawson 13 12101345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 4 Quiet
07 Oct 4 Quiet
08 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 2 days. Quiet
to unsettled conditions with some possibility of active
periods may be expected for the third day due to a CME activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions with
the possibility of minor to moderate MUF enhancements may
be expected in this region for the next 2 days. Minor to
mild degradations are possible on the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 90 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 90 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 2 days with the possibility of minor MUF
depressions on the third day, especially on high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 18800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list