[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 12 issued 2340 UT on 04 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 5 09:40:01 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. No significant
flares were observed. Solar wind speed stayed around 300 km/s
for most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF
mostly varied between +/-2 nT during this time. Very Low to
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
three days (5 to 7 October).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 3 22111011
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Camden 1 11010001
Canberra 1 11010000
Hobart 1 11111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 6 24311000
Mawson 3 22010020
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 4 Quiet
06 Oct 4 Quiet
07 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 3 days
(5 to 7 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions with
the possibility of minor to moderate MUF enhancements may
be expected in this region for the next 3 days
(5 to 7 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days (5 to 7 October) with the possibility
of minor to mild MUF enhancements.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 22900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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