[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 7 10:29:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
All active regions on the disk appear stable, though background
X-ray flux has increase slightly. Low or very low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind density and speed
increased slightly during the UT day, the latter now being ~320km/s.
The IMF Bz component had a southward bias for much of the day,
to -3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12111211
Darwin 8 24112222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 02112212
Alice Springs 4 03111211
Norfolk Island 3 12011111
Culgoora 2 02001211
Gnangara 3 02111211
Canberra 5 33001210
Hobart 3 02102211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 11013300
Mawson - --------
Davis 10 33222322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0010 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 5 Quiet
08 Nov 5 Quiet
09 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet for the last 24
hours with some isolated unsettled periods most likely due to
mild but sustained southward IMF Bz. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain mostly quiet over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some depressions were observed in equatorial regions
over the last 24 hours, with other regions near monthly predicted
values. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 34200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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