[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 12 issued 2332 UT on 05 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 6 10:32:16 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C-class event from beyond the south east limb. Some
spot growth in new region 1607 (N13W44), but other regions on
the disk appear stable. Very low solar activity is expected for
the next 3 days, with a chance of C-class activity. A CME from
the east limb is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind
density and speed remain low. The IMF Bz component varied between
+2 to -4nT during the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 3 11111111
Alice Springs 1 10------
Norfolk Island 1 11100110
Culgoora 2 10110111
Gnangara 3 11------
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 00110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00------
Mawson 3 11------
Davis 7 22222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 3 Quiet
07 Nov 3 Quiet
08 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the last 24 hours
and is expected to remain so over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions were observed at times during
5-Nov, particularly at low-equatorial latitudes. Degraded conditions
are expected at times for 6-Nov, primarily for low-equatorial
latitudes. A gradual return to normal conditions is possible
during 7-8 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
07 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% persisted at times in equatorial
and northern regions over the last 24 hours. Slightly deeper
depressions are expected in those regions on 6-Nov, with other
regions near monthly predicted values or slightly depressed.
A gradual return to near monthly predicted values is possible
during 7-8 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 41900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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