[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 12 issued 2326 UT on 28 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 29 09:26:10 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, with no
major flares or Earthward-directed CMEs. Region AR1490 (S12E06)
has shown some growth in area and complexity. Expect Low solar
activity 29 May, with C-class flares possible from regions AR1490
and AR1492 (S13E42). The Earth is currently in a slow solar wind
stream (Vsw~350-400km/s). The IMF showed southward orientation
at moderate magnitude (~5nT) for a large part of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11011211
Darwin 4 11012221
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 5 21112221
Norfolk Island 2 11011111
Camden 2 01011211
Canberra 2 01011210
Hobart 3 01021211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00020110
Casey 5 22111221
Mawson 5 22102222
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 5 Quiet
30 May 5 Quiet
31 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 28 May with
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations.
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the
next few days. MUFs showed some localised depressions as the
ionosphere recovers slower than expected from last weeks mild
activity. The ionosphere is expected to gradually strengthen
over the next three days, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 44200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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