[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 12 issued 2326 UT on 27 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 28 09:26:06 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day. AR1492 (S13E37)
produced a long-duration C3.1 flare, peaking at 0552UT. Associated
was an eastward-directed, non-halo CME that is not expected to
be geoeffective. AR1492 has grown in size, and further C-class
flares are possible from this region. The 10MeV proton flux reached
the 10pfu (NOAA S1) event level during the day, after a large
eruption from AR1482 behind the west limb late on 26-May. The
solar wind speed remains slow, and the IMF, while consistently
southward-directed over the UT day, has been of small magnitude.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 1 12100000
Darwin 2 22100001
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 2 21100001
Norfolk Island 0 02000000
Camden 1 12000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22201111
Mawson 6 24311000
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 3101 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 5 Quiet
29 May 5 Quiet
30 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 27-May. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 27 May with
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations.
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the
next few days. MUFs were depressed overnight at N.Aus/near-equatorial
locations. MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values next three days, with some further overnight depressions
likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 46900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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