[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 12 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 2 09:30:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1470 (S15E21) produced a C3.9 flare at 0443 UT;
other low-level C flares were also observed. A weak CME associated
with a disappearing filament in the south-west quadrant was first
observed in SDO images at ~0430 UT; the CME is unlikely to be
geo-effective. A new region (S20W38) has emerged rapidly over
the past day. Solar wind parameters have been undisturbed and
should remain mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11100102
Townsville 5 12211212
Learmonth 3 21010211
Norfolk Island 1 11000110
Camden 1 01100101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 3 11101211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23211211
Mawson 14 22110036
Davis 8 22222223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 6 Quiet
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet at Antarctic stations with a major storm
period at Mawson 21-2330 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
13-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
14-17 and 21-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
02-08 UT and to 35% 12-17 UT at Darwin, depressions to
20% 02-05 and 09-16 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20% at some stations 00-17 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 28200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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