[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 12 issued 2328 UT on 30 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 1 09:28:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Region 1465 (S18W95) produced a C3.9 flare at 0738 UT
in conjunction with a CME which is not expected to be geo-effective.
Region 1471 (S22E45) produced a number of C flares, the largest
a C6 at 1041 UT. ACE observations shows the solar wind was undisturbed.
Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over
the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 22111111
Norfolk Island 2 12100010
Camden 1 01110000
Canberra 0 00100001
Hobart 3 12111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00120000
Casey 5 23301011
Mawson 4 13100013
Davis 7 23221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 6 Quiet
02 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
03 May 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
03 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
40% 05-15 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
30% 07-17 and 20-21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25% 09-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25% 08-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
after 12 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 88100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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