[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 12 issued 2335 UT on 21 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 22 10:35:19 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, with just three
C-class flares in Xrays. Solar activity is expected to be at
Low-Moderate levels, with the slight chance of isolated M-class
flares. The increased flare activity is predominantly from a
newly numbered region AR1440 (S26W26). The region showed rapid
development over the UT day, in both size and complexity. Solar
wind/IMF conditions were relatively stable with a low solar wind
speed. A small near-equatorial coronal hole may move into geoeffective
position on day 1 of the forecast period (22 Mar), increasing
solar wind speeds.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 4 20111122
Learmonth 6 21021133
Norfolk Island 3 -1111121
Camden 4 10121122
Canberra 1 00010021
Hobart 4 11121122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 11131010
Casey 11 33322133
Mawson 18 32111264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day with
isolated active periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be Quiet-Unsettled days 1 and 2 (22-23 Mar) with
the expected arrival of a coronal hole wind stream, and mostly
Quiet day 3 (24 -Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day. Minor (15%) MUF depressions were again observed
at S.Aus locations during the day. Ionospheric support is expected
to gradually strengthen over the forecast period, with MUFs mostly
near predicted monthly values. Ongoing mild depressions may be
expected in S.Aus regions day 1 (22 Mar).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 48600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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