[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 12 issued 2341 UT on 20 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 21 10:41:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very Low Very Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, with no
flares above B-level in Xrays. Solar activity is expected to
continue at Very Low levels, although there is a chance of isolated
C-class flares. Two new spotted groups have been numbered: AR1438
(S15E67) just rotated onto the visible disc, and AR1439 (N25W80)
soon to rotate off. Solar wind conditions were stable with IMF
BZ remaining between +/-2nT and solar wind speed declining over
the UT day to be ~400km/s at the time of reporting. A small near-equatorial
coronal hole may move into geoeffective position on day 2 of
the forecast period (22 Mar), increasing solar wind speeds.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 5 22121221
Norfolk Island 3 11110112
Camden 2 11110111
Canberra 1 10010101
Hobart 5 22211211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11220010
Casey 12 34411222
Mawson 22 53221236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2422 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 5 Quiet
22 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day with
isolated active periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be Quiet day 1 (21-Mar), and Quiet-Unsettled
days 2 and 3 (22-23 Mar) with the expected arrival of a coronal
hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Fair
23 Mar Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day. Some periods of spread-F were again observed
at S.Aus locations overnight, degrading HF conditions there.
15-20% MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the
Australian region overnight, and in S.Aus during the day. Ionospheric
support is expected to gradually strengthen over the forecast
period, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. Ongoing
mild overnight depressions may be expected in S.Aus regions days
1 and 2 (21-22 Mar).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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