[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 12 issued 2349 UT on 09 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 10 10:50:02 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:* YELLOW * ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0327UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.1 0334UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.3 0354UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Active Region 1429(N18W13) is the dominant feature on
the visible solar disk. It remains large and magnetically complex
with little change observed over the period. It produced a long-duration
M6 level flare at 0353 with associated Type II radio sweep (1285
km/s) observed on the Learmonth Radio Spectrograph. A type IV
noise continuum followed for several hours. LASCO C2 imagery
shows a full-halo CME following the flare, which appears Earth-directed.
Estimated shock arrival time is early on the UT day Mar 11. Newly
numbered region 1432 ner the East limb produced a C9 level flare
at 2025UT. Solar wind stream remains under the influence of the
shock front from the Mar 07 X5 level flare. Wind speed declined
from 650 to 550 km/s over the UT day. After about 02UT the Bz
component of the IMF turned strongly Southward maintaining about
-20nT for some hours before gradually trending towards neutral
by 14UT. The >10MeV proton event which began on Mar 07 is still
in progress with proton fluxes slowly declining.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 36 45565422
Darwin 36 55555423
Townsville 34 55555412
Learmonth 35 55555422
Norfolk Island 32 45654322
Camden 40 45665422
Canberra 36 45565412
Hobart 55 46-76522
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 78 46777632
Casey 54 67654334
Mawson 65 57765434
Davis 48 5-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 65 (Active)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gnangara 99 (Minor storm)
Canberra 119 (Major storm)
Hobart 103 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 46
Planetary 73
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28 2115 5643
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 20 Active
11 Mar 60 Storm Levels
12 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is at present under the influence
of a solar wind shock front from the X5 flare/CME of Mar 07.
The Bz magnetic component of this front has remained Northward,
limiting geomagnetic disturbance until early on the UT day Mar
09, when it turned strongly Southward, approaching -20nT. This
configuration maintained for several hours, settling to near-neutral
Bz by about 14UT. In response, regional geomagnetic conditions
elevated from Active to Minor/Major Storm levels until around
15UT. A period of Severe Storm activity (Kp >= 7) was recorded
at Hobart between 06-12UT. Severe Storm intervals were also recorded
at the Australian Antarctic bases. Conditions should decline
to Unsettled on day one of the forecast period, but Active to
Minor Storm intervals are possible. The large sunspot region
which produced this event has produced an M6 level flare and
CME at 09/0353. The CME appears Earth-directed with estimated
arrival time early on the UT day Mar 11. Active to Major Storm
conditions are possible days two and three of the forecast period.
Energetic particle fluxes remain elevated, although slowly declining.
The >10MeV proton event which began Mar 07 is still in progress.
Continuing proton flux elevation is possible following the anticipated
shock arrival on day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 1630UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
12 Mar Fair Fair Poor
COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity and proton
event in progress.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
No data after 16UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin variable enhancements/depressions local evening.
Townsville enhanced by 40% 11-18UT.
Brisbane enhanced by 20-40% 09-13UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Canberra, Sydney depressed 40-50% 15-23UT.
Hobart depressed 20-50% with periods of spread-F 08-23UT.
Regional depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption
to -4dB observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
11 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
12 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
COMMENT: Variable enhancements / depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Shortwave fadeout observed briefly E Aus and for
1 hour W Aus following M-class solar flare 0350UT. Weak ionosphere
Antarctic region with increased absorption local day. Expect
continuing moderate geomagnetic disturbances day one. Little
ionospheric support expected Antarctic region days one and two.
Disturbances possibly extending at times to S Aus region. Variable
conditions likely Equatorial / N Aus regions. Expect further
geomagnetic disturbance affecting S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
days two and three
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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