[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 12 issued 2340 UT on 08 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 9 10:40:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:* YELLOW * ION: * YELLOW *
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Following the intense activity of Mar 07, solar activity
on Mar 08 was low. Only two impulsive C-class flares were observed
over the period. Active region 1429 (N18E04) remains large and
complex and maintains potential for further M- to X-class flare
production. Solar wind speed is indeterminate due to the ongoing
SEP event, but will be elevated following a shock passage observed
at the ACE satellite platform at 08/1045UT. Following shock arrival,
the Bz component of the IMF stepped to +40 nT and remained above
+20 nT for 1.5 hours before settling to about +10 nT. This was
the anticipated passage of the CME associated with the Mar 07
X-class flare. Low energy proton fluxes increased by about one
order of magnitude at the time of shock passage but have declined
to pre-shock levels by the time of report issue - still two orders
of magnitude above nominal levels following the Mar 04 event.
The >10MeV proton event which began on Mar 07 remains in
progress, with proton flux above 1600 pfu at the time of report
issue.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 12234333
Darwin 12 212-4333
Townsville 15 122-5333
Learmonth 21 222-5444
Norfolk Island 12 211-4333
Camden 15 122-5333
Canberra 10 01124333
Hobart 14 12244333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 25 11146543
Casey 57 45566565
Mawson 46 44356556
Davis 38 43356455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 102 (Major storm)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 73 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 64 3566 7744
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
10 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, a shock passage from the X-class flare/CME
of Mar 07 was observed at the ACE satellite platform at 08/1045UT.
A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 30-40 nT was observed on the
IPS magnetometer network at 1103UT. The regional geomagnetic
field at low to mid latitudes was Quiet prior to the event, with
Minor Storm periods observed following impact from 11-15UT, after
which conditions declined to Unsettled. At high latitudes conditions
were mostly Active with Minor to Major Storm periods following
the sudden impulse and continuing for the remainder of the UT
day. The embedded Bz component of the CME shock has so far been
North-biased, limiting geomagnetic disturbance. Expect continuing
Unsettled conditions day one with the chance of isolated Minor
Storm intervals. Minor to Major Storm periods possible at high
latitudes. Activity should decline days two and three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 1630UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
10 Mar Normal Normal Poor
11 Mar Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity and proton
event in progress.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 20-30% 01-13UT.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-50% 00-07UT.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin depressed 20-30% 04-11UT.
Sporadic-E at Townsville 02-07UT.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Hobart spread-F 10-20UT.
Norfolk Is. sporadic-E 04-06UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption
to -6dB observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
10 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
11 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements / depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Widespread depressions local day Aus region. Weak
ionosphere Antarctic region with increased absorption local day.
Expect continuing moderate geomagnetic disturbances day one.
Little ionospheric support expected Antarctic region days one
and two. Disturbances possibly extending at times to S Aus region.
Variable conditions likely Equatorial / N Aus regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.1E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list