[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 21 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 22 09:29:59 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Very Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with the largest event being a B7 flare from region 1504 (S20)
as it rotated off the disc. With no currently active regions,
very low to low activity is expected for the next three days,
though previous regions 1497 and 1503 are due to return. The
solar wind speed varied between 350-450km/s over the UT day and
the IMF Bz component remained mostly neutral with a positive
bias.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 4 22021111
Norfolk Island 2 31000010
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22111111
Mawson 3 12001013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1210 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 5 Quiet
23 Jun 5 Quiet
24 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain so for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of mild MUF depressions were observed over most
of the Australian region during the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted values to mildly depressed
in the Australian region over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 39300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list