[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 20 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 21 09:29:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours,
with region 1504 (S16W77) producing several flares, a C3 being
the largest. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the
next three days, with a slight chance of M-class activity. The
solar wind speed remained around 350-400km/s. The IMF Bz component
was mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12100010
Darwin 1 12000000
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 4 22221110
Norfolk Island 2 12100010
Camden 1 12000010
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 1 12000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 02000000
Casey 5 23210121
Mawson 6 34211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 2 0110 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 5 Quiet
22 Jun 5 Quiet
23 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of mild MUF depressions were observed over most
of the Australian region during the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted values to mildly depressed
in the Australian region over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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