[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 12 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 19 09:31:36 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours,
with C1 flares from active regions 1504 (S17W39) and 1508 (S25W55).
Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next three
days, with a slight chance of M-class activity. The solar wind
speed varied around 400-500km/s for most of the UT day. The IMF
Bz component was southward to about -10nT until 03UT and has
remained southward to -5nT for most of the rest of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 24322211
Darwin 7 24221110
Townsville 11 34322221
Learmonth 13 35322221
Norfolk Island 7 24221111
Camden 9 24322211
Canberra 8 24222210
Hobart 10 24332210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 19 36333300
Casey 10 24332211
Mawson 43 67332345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 55 4456 7554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun 5 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
over the last 24 hours. The Australian region experienced an
active spell early in the UT day following a period of sustained
southward IMF Bz. Storm level activity was observed in the Antarctic
region around the same time. Conditions for the Australian region
are expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days, with some
unsettled periods likely on 19-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E and spread-F were observed in
Northern and Southern Australia over the UT day, with poor ionospheric
support in the Antarctic region. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near monthly predicted values in the Australian region for the
next 3 days, with some mild depressions likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 87400 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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