[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 17 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 18 09:54:11 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Today's largest flare 
was a C3.9 flare from region 1504(S17W39). This flare peaked 
at 1740 UT. The effect of the previously reported CMEs kept 
the solar wind stream strong. The effect showed gradual 
weakening over the UT day today. Solar wind speed decreased 
from 500 km/s to 420 km/s through the UT day today. The Bz 
component of IMF mostly varied between +/-15nT staying southwards 
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at Low levels for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated M-class activity from region 1504. The effect of a 
recurrent coronal hole may strengthen the solar wind stream 
from 20 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   33354432
      Darwin              20   43344432
      Townsville          21   43344433
      Learmonth           30   34455533
      Norfolk Island      14   33343322
      Camden              18   33353332
      Canberra            17   33353322
      Hobart              21   23364322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    47   23765543
      Casey               17   34433323
      Mawson              55   45664347

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             38                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             17   1102 3346     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun    10    Unsettled to Active
19 Jun     5    Quiet
20 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from unsettled to isolated 
minor storm levels today. Mostly unsettled levels of activity 
may be expected on 18 June with some possibility of isolated 
active periods on this day. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
for 19 June. Activity levels may increase to unsettled levels 
on 20 June due a coronal hole effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions may be observed on 
18 June. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 19 and 
20 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 18 June. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected on 19 and 20 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:    66200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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